England top-group scenario: what Tuchel's side need against Panama

England have sealed their place in the World Cup knockout phase as one of the eight best third-placed teams, but Thomas Tuchel's side can still finish as group winners when they face Panama on Wednesday. Victory would almost certainly take them to the top of Group L, though one particular combination of results elsewhere could deny them that position.

What England need to win the group

A win against the Central Americans would be enough to top the group, unless Ghana beat Croatia and overtake England on goal difference. At the moment, the Three Lions hold a one-goal advantage over the Black Stars. A draw would also seal first place, but only if the Croatia against Ghana match ends in a draw. If there is a winner in that game, England would finish second on a tiebreaker.

Should England lose to Panama, they would drop to second place if Ghana beat Croatia or that game ends level. If Croatia win and England lose, Tuchel's team would still finish second as long as their goal difference stays ahead of Ghana's. That margin currently stands at one goal.

New tiebreaker rules in place

For the first time since 1970, the World Cup does not use goal difference as the primary tiebreaker for teams level on points in the group stage. Instead, head-to-head records between the tied sides are applied first. This is why England would finish above Croatia if both end up on four points, given Tuchel's team beat them earlier in the tournament.

The condensed schedule has been a challenge for England because their campaign started later than most, with Group L's fixtures delayed. Should the Three Lions reach the final on July 19, they would have played six matches in just 23 days.

Possible opponents in the Round of 32

If England finish as group winners, they enter the bottom half of the draw and face a third-placed side from Groups E, I, J or K. That opponent is almost certain to be one of Ecuador, Senegal, Austria, Algeria, DR Congo or Uzbekistan, with a very small chance it could be Portugal. That match would be played in Atlanta on July 2 at 5pm local time.

A second-place finish would send England against the runner-up in Group K, likely either Portugal or Colombia, with the fixture in Toronto on July 2 at midnight. Should Tuchel's team slide to third in the group, they would meet the winner of Group K - again either Colombia or Portugal - in Kansas City on July 4 at 2.30am local time.