On the brink already: ranking the World Cup favourites in trouble, and the outsiders ready to bury them

Two rounds of group games is usually enough to separate the pretenders from the powers. At this World Cup it has done the opposite. Some of the names everyone pencilled in for the latter stages are already wobbling, while a cluster of supposed makeweights have looked sharper, hungrier and far better organised than the giants they are chasing down. So let me rank it honestly: the favourites in genuine trouble, and the outsiders best placed to punish them.

The favourites who should be worried

1. Spain

The reigning European champions were supposed to glide through. Instead they were held to a goalless draw by debutants Cape Verde, and the whole of their group has tightened into a knot, with all four sides drawing and Spain sitting outside the top two. Lamine Yamal and company still carry the most talent in their section on paper, but talent that cannot break down a well-drilled debutant is talent under pressure. The margin for error has already gone. Win the last group game or risk a nightmare seeding, or worse.

2. Portugal

Same story, different shade of red. Portugal were pegged back by DR Congo in a result that read like a misprint when the fixtures were drawn. For a squad with this much firepower, dropping points to a side they were expected to brush aside is not a blip, it is a warning. The knockout rounds are unforgiving to teams that cannot put away the games they are favoured to win, and right now Portugal look like exactly that team.

3. The wider warning

The pattern matters more than any single result. When multiple heavyweights stall at once, the bracket warps. Favourites who scrape through as runners-up get thrown into the path of in-form sides far earlier than planned, and a tournament that looked top-heavy suddenly has trapdoors everywhere. That is the gift the strugglers are handing the rest of the field.

The outsiders ready to pounce

1. Morocco

If you want the team carrying themselves like genuine contenders, start here. The Atlas Lions followed an impressive showing against Brazil by dismantling Scotland's qualification hopes, scoring the fastest goal of the tournament inside 71 seconds and then defending the lead with the calm of a side that has done this on the big stage before. Organised, ruthless and deep, Morocco are not a dark horse anymore. They are a problem.

2. Germany

While Spain and Portugal stuttered, Germany answered the only way that silences doubt: with goals, and lots of them. A 7-1 demolition of Curacao was the kind of statement that reframes a group, and Julian Nagelsmann's attack looked every bit a unit firing on all cylinders. Call them a favourite if you like, but after the opening fortnight they belong in the conversation as the team best placed to capitalise on the wobbles above them.

3. Norway

The dark horse with a cheat code. Erling Haaland's first-half brace in a 4-1 win over Iraq set the tone, and Norway have the look of a side that could top a winnable group and arrive in the knockouts with momentum and a striker nobody wants to draw. If a favourite slips into their half of the bracket, this is the outsider most likely to make them pay.

The pecking order, two matchdays in

So here is where I would rank the live picture. Among the teams in genuine danger of an early embarrassment, Spain top the list purely because the expectation was highest and the cushion is gone, with Portugal a close second. Among the outsiders ready to take advantage, Morocco lead the way as the most complete of the surprise packages, Germany are the heavyweight rounding back into form at the perfect time, and Norway are the wildcard nobody wants to face.

None of this is fatal yet. Spain and Portugal have the players to flip the narrative in a single 90 minutes, and one ruthless performance can wipe away a fortnight of doubt. But the World Cup does not wait for reputations to catch up with form. The favourites have been warned. The outsiders are listening.

Here is how the tournament is shaping up across the groups:

We will keep ranking the contenders and tracking every upset as the group stage reaches its climax, so stay across our latest football news, with full match coverage in the World Cup hub.