Ranking the real World Cup contenders as the group stage closes, and why Germany just told us something
Spain and France remain the bookmakers' picks, but the group stage has quietly reshuffled the running order. Here is who actually looks ready to win it, and who is living on reputation.
There is a particular kind of football truth that only a tournament can tell you, and it usually arrives in stoppage time. On Saturday night in Toronto it arrived through Deniz Undav, a substitute, twice, the second in the 94th minute, to drag Germany past a stubborn Ivory Coast and into the last 32. It was not a vintage German performance. It was something more useful at a World Cup: proof of a team that finds a way when the night is going wrong.
That is the lens for this piece. With the group stage all but done, the bookmakers still have Spain and France at the top of the market, and on talent alone that is hard to argue with. But a World Cup is not won on talent alone. It is won by the side that solves the most problems in the fewest weeks. So here is an honest running order of the genuine contenders, built on what we have actually seen rather than what we expected to see.
1. France: still the most complete attacking machine in the field
It is Didier Deschamps' final tournament in charge, and his squad is built to overwhelm. The depth in the forward line is almost unfair, and even when the first idea fails there is a second and a third on the bench. The question that has dogged this France side for two cycles remains the same: will they commit to the front foot, or will they sit, manage and trust the moment of magic? When they attack, nobody in this tournament is better. That is enough to make them the team to beat.
2. Spain: the most beautiful football, with one nagging worry
Spain play the cleanest, most controlled football of any side here, and at their best they suffocate opponents without ever breaking sweat. The caveat is fitness in the final third, where the margins between dominant and merely pretty are decided. Cape Verde's stubborn draw with them in the group stage was a reminder that the expanded 48-team format rewards organisation, and that even the favourites can be held by a side with nothing to lose. Control wins you a lot of games. It does not always win you the last one.
3. Germany: back where they belong, and dangerous because of it
Two years ago you would not have had Germany this high. The Undav night changes the read. This is their first knockout appearance since 2014, and a team that has spent a decade being told it had lost its identity has just shown it still owns the most German trait of all: the refusal to lose. They are not the most gifted side in the draw. They might be the most awkward to knock out.
4. Argentina: Messi, and the weight of the badge
You do not write off the holders, and you certainly do not write off Argentina while Lionel Messi is still capable of deciding a knockout tie on his own. The opening-night hat-trick against Algeria told you the appetite is intact. The worry is the same one every champion carries into a defence: the legs, the schedule and the sense that everyone else has had a year to study you.
5. Brazil: lower than usual, and possibly happier for it
It is rare to rank Brazil outside the top three. This time the noise around them is quieter, the expectation lighter, and history says that is exactly when they become dangerous. A Brazil side that nobody is fearing is a Brazil side free to play. Do not be surprised if they are the team peaking in the second week.
The dark horse nobody wanted to draw
The Netherlands tore Sweden apart 5-1 in Houston, with Brobbey and Gakpo both scoring twice, and they have quietly assembled the kind of balanced, ruthless side that wins tournaments without ever being the story. They are not on many front pages. They might be on the right side of the bracket.
What the group stage actually told us
The headline lesson of this expanded World Cup is that the floor has risen. Curaçao took a point off Ecuador and earned their first ever World Cup point. Cape Verde held Spain. The minnows are organised, drilled and impossible to bully, which means the big sides will not be able to coast through the early knockouts the way they once did. Every contender on this list will, at some point, have a night like Germany's in Toronto: a night that goes wrong, against a side that will not bend, with the whole thing hanging on one substitute and one moment.
The teams that win those nights are the ones lifting trophies in July. On the evidence so far, France have the most weapons, Spain have the most control, and Germany have the most stubbornness. If you forced me to pick today, I would take the side that can do all three for ninety minutes plus stoppage time. Nobody has shown that yet. That is what the knockouts are for.
For the full picture as the bracket takes shape, follow every fixture, score and result through the World Cup hub, and keep an eye on the latest football news as the knockout draw lands.