The favourites are stumbling, and this World Cup is better for it

There is a familiar rhythm to the opening days of a World Cup. The favourites stroll out, dispatch an overmatched opponent, and the tournament settles into its expected hierarchy. That is not what is happening in 2026. Instead, in the space of a few days, the heavyweights have been made to sweat, stumble and in some cases drop points they never imagined losing, and the competition is all the more compelling for it.

Start with the result that set the tone. Spain, the European champions and one of the genuine favourites, were held to a goalless draw by Cape Verde, a tournament debutant representing an archipelago of barely 600,000 people. This was not a freak storm survived by luck. It was ninety minutes of disciplined, defiant defending against a side that dominated the ball and could not find a way through. Then came Belgium, another of the dark horses, pegged back to a 1-1 draw by Egypt. Two of the most fancied teams in the field, two points dropped, two reminders that reputation counts for nothing once the whistle goes.

Why this is happening

It would be lazy to call these results flukes. They are, instead, the product of a few converging trends. The gap between the elite and the rest has narrowed for years, as players from smaller nations earn their living in Europe's best leagues and arrive at tournaments battle-hardened rather than starstruck. Add the particular pressure of an expanded World Cup, where favourites carry the weight of expectation while underdogs play with the freedom of having nothing to lose, and you get exactly this: tight, tense, unpredictable group games.

There is also a tactical truth at work. A well-organised, deep-lying defensive block remains one of the hardest problems in football to solve, and the underdogs of this tournament have clearly studied it. Spain dominated possession against Cape Verde and still could not break them down; that is not an accident, it is a plan executed with nerve. When the favourites cannot simply overwhelm opponents with talent, the margins shrink, and a single moment, a save, a block, a missed chance, decides everything.

Here is how the group stage is shaping up across all twelve sections as the picture develops.

What it means for the contenders

For the favourites who have stumbled, the consequences are real and immediate. Dropped points in the group stage do not just dent pride; they alter seedings, complicate the knockout path and pile pressure onto the very next game. Spain and Belgium now have less margin for error than they expected, and both must respond quickly or risk turning an awkward start into a genuine crisis. The luxury of easing into a tournament has been taken away from them.

The flip side is a tournament thrown wide open in a way few predicted. When the European champions can be held by debutants, every team in the draw allows itself a flicker of belief, and that belief is contagious. It changes how the underdogs prepare, how the favourites approach their fixtures, and how the neutral watches. A World Cup where the result is never assumed is a far better spectacle than one where the big names simply march through.

The bigger picture

None of this means the favourites are finished. Quality usually tells over seven games, and the likes of Spain remain among the most talented squads on the planet. A stuttering start can be the jolt that sharpens a serious side, and more than one eventual champion has begun a World Cup looking vulnerable. The smart money will still back the heavyweights to find their level when it matters most.

But the early evidence has already reframed this tournament. The hierarchy that everyone assumed has been challenged in the opening week, the underdogs have served notice that they came to compete rather than make up the numbers, and the favourites have been reminded that nothing here will be handed to them. That is not a problem for the World Cup. It is the best thing that could have happened to it.